77% of iPhone 4 Sales Were Upgrades

By Jake • June 25th, 2010 • 12 Comments

Data from yesterday’s iPhone 4 marathon of line-standing are trickling across the intertubes.

I found this to be less sunny a prediction than the analyst they quoted as saying “mission accomplished.”

77% of iPhone 4 sales were upgrades – Apple 2.0 – Fortune Tech

Apple has always sold well into its sweetspot of users, so if anything, wouldn’t analysts be looking for them to take marketshare from others?

The survey size isn’t terribly large (only 608 respondents), but here are two points that stuck out for me:

I interpret these as bad signs for Apple. Am I wrong?

Find the comments.


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  • http://twitter.com/theappslab/statuses/17038448284 theappslab (theappslab)

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  • http://empoprise-bi.blogspot.com/ John E. Bredehoft (Empoprises)

    When looking at the 3% who switched from Android, we have to remember that Android is a relatively new platform, and therefore you wouldn't expect a lot of people to switch until their current contracts expire.

    Because Blackberry has been around for a while, the fact that only 6% were switching from Blackberry is more statistically significant.

    If Apple truly wanted to become a dominant player in smartphones, they'd offer a low-cost phone and insist that their exclusive service providers offer low-cost contracts to their users. However, such a move is completely foreign to Apple's business model.

  • http://theappslab.com Jake

    Good point about Android, even very early adopters will only be near the end of their contracts.

    A Verizon iPhone is immensely critical to Apple. Although any CDMA iPhone would help, Verizon has the coverage, the marketing, the customer base to make iPhone dominant. That would make the Droid marketing a bit weird though, since they've been drilling the iPhone since Day 1.

    The fact that fewer consumers are switching carriers seems significant too, given the exclusivity of AT&T's contract with Apple.

  • joel garry
  • http://theappslab.com Jake

    Nice. I'd heard that one of the new Microsoft stores was right across from an Apple store. What a weird cross-section though. I wonder how many of the people in line for Disney concert tickets own Apple stuff.

    Would be fun to get a real duel going, i.e. two products, equally anticipated, coming out the same day. Not that Microsoft has ever had anything like that.

  • http://friendfeed.com/tele1ten Tele1 Ten

    http://tele1ten.com/

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  • http://friendfeed.com/empoprises John E. Bredehoft

    And who said FriendFeed is dead? It still attracts the spammers…

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  • http://friendfeed.com/empoprises John E. Bredehoft

    The account seems to have only spammed 50 or so users. Time for the block.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  • http://friendfeed.com/empoprises John E. Bredehoft

    The block is in, and Tele1 Ten is gone from my view.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed

  • http://friendfeed.com/vixy Vixy 4.0

    Haha great article

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  • http://friendfeed.com/empoprises John E. Bredehoft

    Jake Kuramoto is one of the few FriendFeeders whom I’ve actually met in real life. I went to Oracle OpenWorld for several years, and met Jake and some others at the blogger meetups. The AppsLab is an interesting group.

    This comment was originally posted on FriendFeed