Not that it matter, but I’ve missed on another of my predictions.
By now, you’ve likely heard that Nokia is partnering with Microsoft to release Windows Phone 7 smartphones. Many, many, many people are seeing this as highly negative and disappointing for Nokia, and Nokia’s stock reflects this sentiment.
I tend to agree, and here’s a quick summary of what my initial thoughts:
- WP 7 has few apps and therefore can’t compete with Android and iOS. With mobile development already split, adding another platform isn’t feasible for many development shops.
- Big questions loom for dumbphones, where Nokia still has a huge advantage. I don’t have a lot of confidence that WP 7 is optimized for low spec hardware.
- The WP 7 browser is based on IE 7. You read that right. No HTML5 or really any modern browsing. They’re porting to IE 9, so maybe that will get done in time for Nokia/WP 7 smartphones. Who knows?
- Nokia goes from an open source haven to a closed source one. Yes, there will still be some open source, e.g. MeeGo, but the commitment is gone.
I haven’t digested all the analysis yet, but it’s intensely negative so far.
Like Tim (@oraclebase), I was rooting for Nokia, and even as recently as yesterday when it became impossible to ignore the WP 7 rumor, I was really hoping for an Android announcement. Alas, it was not to be.
I suppose I could still claim some measure of correctness if the Dalvik VM rumor for BlackBerry Playbook is true. Or not.
Anyway, your reactions to the Nokiasoft news? Find the comments.
Update: David (@dhaimes) points out that I did predict a comeback for Microsoft in 2011. Unfortunately, I wasn’t hoping for this type of resurgence. WP 7 does have some humorous ads, but they tread a delicate line between phone that’s productive and phone that’s dumb and therefore you won’t be using much.