Fearless Predictions for 2011

At least one person (ahem, Gary) wanted to read my predictions for 2011. So, here we go.

Let’s start by reviewing the 2010 edition. Here’s what I predicted:

Reputation will be all the rage in 2010.
Fail.  I did read that Twitter has an internal way to measure the weight of a user, and at Chirp in April, they talked about resonance, which they use to measure promoted tweets.

Sadly, Twitter hasn’t been sharing these data with users. Reputation really went no where in 2010, unless you consider Quora a reputation system.

Geo will be left at the altar in 2010.
Win. That’s what I’m calling it anyway. I predicted that major services would roll out location; they did. I also predicted that no one would use it.

From what I’ve seen, that’s correct too. Foursquare continues to grow, but it’s a scant four million users. Maybe I’m wrong, but Facebook Places and Twitter location haven’t really caught on with the bell curve. Location is still niche.

Broadband TV will gain switchers en masse.
Fail. This one is eerie. Much of what I predicted came true, except for the primary point. Google’s surprise entry into this arena caused the content producers to freak out and block Google TV, and content did become even more readily through iTunes offering $0.99 show rentals and Netflix offering streaming only plans.

Still, switching needs to be easier and possible with a single device.

As for my random predictions, it’s a mixed bag.

Stop living in the past. Here come my seven bold and fearless predictions for 2011. As usual, I’m being as specific and quantifiable as possible so we can easily declare win/fail in a year.

EBooks and self-publishing will be the new blogging, not Quora.
The rise of eReaders will drive every blogger into self-publishing.

Think about it. Bloggers create content, but very few make any money. Publishing an eBook is easier than ever, and bloggers already have a marketing platform to sell their wares.

Why not fold all that content into book form and sell it on a blog? Many are already doing this, and it makes a lot of sense for readers too. After all, you can take content with you, mark it up and read it offline.

Yeah, maybe it’s stuff you know is out there for free, but people will pay small amounts for those conveniences.

This trend will freak out the big publishing houses, but hey, welcome to the party.

Lately, Quora has been debated as a new way to blog or whatever. I joined a few months ago, but I haven’t found any reason to stick yet. We’ll see. If anything, Quora is an echo chamber for now.

This one will be tough to quantify, granted, but I think we’ll be able to make an easy call in a year.

Nokia and BlackBerry will surrender to Android.
By surrender, I mean that both Nokia and BlackBerry will release Android-powered phones in 2011.

Yeah, I know Nokia has investments in MeeGo and QT, and BlackBerry will be dropping the Playbook in 2011. Those will fail, and both giants will realize they need Android to stay relevant. The Honeycomb (3.0) release of Android will seal the deal.

2011 will mark the return of Microsoft.
Let’s quantify this one as Microsoft’s ability to hang their hat on something new. Kinect and Win Phone 7 are both too new for this quite yet, but by next year, I expect one or both will be big successes.

Plus, IE9 will drop in 2011, and Win 7 will continue to make headway.

Generally speaking, Microsoft has been turning the ship for several years now. I expect them to get it done in 2011 and finally stop being a punchline. Steve Ballmer will get a raw deal though; I don’t see him heading the company by the end of next year.

The iPhone will not come to Verizon.
This one is easy to call, and if the latest rumors are right, I’ll be proven wrong in January.

I’m being a bit perverse here; I don’t see this happening, ever. Plus, even if it does, I don’t expect the avalanche of switchers predicted by pretty much every tech pundit.

Every month that Apple and Verizon fail to consummate this agreement, Verizon sells more Droids, which changes the negotiating position between the two.

Someone will build a fantastic Android tablet.
The iPad created the market, and 2011 will bring a worthy competitor, thanks to Honeycomb.

I suppose you could argue that the NOOKcolor or Samsung Galaxy Tab are worthy, or the Dell Streak. I’m not sure, but from the mixed reviews I’ve read, the easy answer is no.

Yeah, the iPad will get a new version in 2011, but this mythical Android tablet will match it.

Kindle will be the new Facebook.
What I mean by this is that everyone you know will be getting one for Christmas. I was a bit shocked that the third-generation Kindle is Amazon’s top selling product of all time.

In light of that, it’s not tough to predict Kindle’s dominance in 2011. Again, eBooks and digital reading are white hot, and the Kindle is an affordable and easy way to scratch that itch.

The Kindle will be the ubiquitous device of 2011. You’ll see them everywhere you go where there’s waiting, airports, buses, trains, medical waiting rooms.

This is an easy one to predict.

NFC and AR will blow our minds.
Bit of a throwaway, since it’s subjective, but seven is a nice number.

The rise of near field communications (NFC) and augmented reality (AR) will produce some insanely cool technology in 2011, real sci-fi stuff. I won’t have to look hard to find at least one example this time next year.

That’s all I have, so run and tell that homeboy.

Thoughts on these? Find the comments.